Tuesday, September 14, 2004

OK folks, it's time for me to make my state by state projections for Nov. 12. I'm using the template from electionprojection.com and making my own alterations.

Election 2004 Projections

State-by-state Analysis

Alabama - 9 electoral votes
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.
Alaska - 3
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.
Arkansas - 6
A solid Bush win.

Arizona - 10
Bush again.
California - 55
Only in play if Kerry totally dissolves; Kerry's to lose.

Colorado - 9
Bush wins.
Connecticut - 7
Kerry in 2004.
District of Columbia - 3
Kerry of course.

Delaware - 3
Kerry
Georgia - 15
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Florida - 27
Bush by a comfortable margin--not like 2000.
Bush by 6-9%

Hawaii - 4
Kerry.

Idaho - 4
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Illinois - 21
Kerry.

Indiana - 11
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Iowa - 7
Bush by a hair.

Kansas - 6
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Kentucky - 8
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Louisiana - 9
Bush.
Maine-4

Kerry by a hair.

Maryland - 10
Kerry

Massachusetts - 12
Solidly Kerry in 2004.
Michigan - 17
Bush by a hair.

Minnesota - 10
Bush by a hair.

Mississippi - 6
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Missouri - 11
Bush by a comfortable margin.
Montana - 3
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Nebraska - 5
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Nevada - 5

Bush by a small margin.

New Hampshire - 4
Kerry by a hair, sadly.

New Jersey - 15
Kerry by a small margin.

New Mexico - 5
Bush by a small margin.

New York - 31

Kerry here by less than 10%.

North Carolina - 15
This is still Bush country.

North Dakota - 3
Solidly Bush in 2004.

Ohio - 20
Bush by a comfortbale margin.

Oklahoma - 7
Solidly Bush in 2004.

Oregon - 7
A tough call. Cross my fingers and say Bush by a tiny margin.

Pennsylvania - 21
Bush!

Rhode Island - 4
Solidly Kerry in 2004.

South Carolina - 8
Solidly Bush in 2004. Edwards won't be a factor.

South Dakota - 3
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.

Tennessee - 11
The absence of the native will result in a normal double-digit southern victory for Bush.

Texas - 34
Solidly Bush in 2004.

Utah - 5
Solidly Bush in 2004.

Vermont - 3
Kerry country.

Virginia - 13
Bush country.

Washington - 11
Kerry.

West Virginia - 5
Bush will win here again.

Wisconsin - 10
Bush by a small margin.

Wyoming - 3
Solidly Bush in 2004.


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