Tuesday, September 14, 2004

OK folks, it's time for me to make my state by state projections for Nov. 12. I'm using the template from electionprojection.com and making my own alterations.

Election 2004 Projections

State-by-state Analysis

Alabama - 9 electoral votes
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.
Alaska - 3
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.
Arkansas - 6
A solid Bush win.

Arizona - 10
Bush again.
California - 55
Only in play if Kerry totally dissolves; Kerry's to lose.

Colorado - 9
Bush wins.
Connecticut - 7
Kerry in 2004.
District of Columbia - 3
Kerry of course.

Delaware - 3
Kerry
Georgia - 15
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Florida - 27
Bush by a comfortable margin--not like 2000.
Bush by 6-9%

Hawaii - 4
Kerry.

Idaho - 4
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Illinois - 21
Kerry.

Indiana - 11
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Iowa - 7
Bush by a hair.

Kansas - 6
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Kentucky - 8
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Louisiana - 9
Bush.
Maine-4

Kerry by a hair.

Maryland - 10
Kerry

Massachusetts - 12
Solidly Kerry in 2004.
Michigan - 17
Bush by a hair.

Minnesota - 10
Bush by a hair.

Mississippi - 6
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Missouri - 11
Bush by a comfortable margin.
Montana - 3
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Nebraska - 5
Solidly Bush in 2004.
Nevada - 5

Bush by a small margin.

New Hampshire - 4
Kerry by a hair, sadly.

New Jersey - 15
Kerry by a small margin.

New Mexico - 5
Bush by a small margin.

New York - 31

Kerry here by less than 10%.

North Carolina - 15
This is still Bush country.

North Dakota - 3
Solidly Bush in 2004.

Ohio - 20
Bush by a comfortbale margin.

Oklahoma - 7
Solidly Bush in 2004.

Oregon - 7
A tough call. Cross my fingers and say Bush by a tiny margin.

Pennsylvania - 21
Bush!

Rhode Island - 4
Solidly Kerry in 2004.

South Carolina - 8
Solidly Bush in 2004. Edwards won't be a factor.

South Dakota - 3
Solidly Bush in 2000, solidly Bush in 2004.

Tennessee - 11
The absence of the native will result in a normal double-digit southern victory for Bush.

Texas - 34
Solidly Bush in 2004.

Utah - 5
Solidly Bush in 2004.

Vermont - 3
Kerry country.

Virginia - 13
Bush country.

Washington - 11
Kerry.

West Virginia - 5
Bush will win here again.

Wisconsin - 10
Bush by a small margin.

Wyoming - 3
Solidly Bush in 2004.


Just What Kerry Needs: Ted the Swimmer at His Side

Kennedy to Hit Campaign Trail for Kerry
By LOLITA C. BALDOR, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON - Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, often credited with giving a boost to John Kerry's presidential campaign, is launching a seven-week election drive for his Massachusetts colleague that will pair fund raising and travel with a barrage of speeches condemning President Bush's policies.

Kennedy, D-Mass., will make two campaign stops in Pennsylvania on Friday, in addition to appearances around the country nearly every weekend as a surrogate for Kerry. While the Senate remains in session, Kennedy plans almost daily rebukes of Bush's policies, ranging from the war in Iraq to health care and education.

Kennedy waged a similar war of words against Bush four years ago for Democrat Al Gore. But this time, his work for Kerry will be more active and involve much more travel, Kennedy's aides said.

[Run, Johnny, Run! As fast as you can from wrong-way Teddy!]

They would not release a list of places where Kennedy is expected to campaign, but said the liberal Democrat [what a blast of refreshing honesty!) will be in battleground states across all regions of the country.

Kennedy said he is intent on defeating Bush and putting Kerry in the White House, and will lay out the administration's "incompetence" in its domestic and foreign policies in his speeches.
He started Tuesday with a condemnation of Bush's efforts at solving the nation's health care crisis.

[Memo to W: See how Teddy responds to the "new tone."]

"George Bush has had a lot to say about health care over the last few days, but nowhere has the Bush presidency been more devastating," said Kennedy, who will speak about health care in Harrisburg and Scranton on Friday.

Republicans, meanwhile, have rejoiced in the opportunity to link Kerry with his home state's liberal lion — one of the politicians conservatives love to hate.

[HALLELUYAH!]

During the primary contests this year, Kennedy allowed Kerry to hire two of his key staffers, including Mary Beth Cahill, who is now Kerry's campaign manager. Kennedy later traveled to Iowa and New Hampshire to help energize crowds and rally the liberal base for Kerry.